Bitcoin (BTC), and the wider cryptocurrency market, have experienced a strong runup from the beginning of 2023, with more than 40% growth. Bitcoin (BTC), which has a market capitalization of $439 billion, is currently trading at $22,789 as of press time.
Mike McGlone, a senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, stated that cryptos could face their first real recession. This could result in lower asset prices and greater volatility.
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Bitcoin was born during the 2008 US financial session. Although Bitcoin is meant to be an alternative to the fiat currency system, it remains a volatile asset class. Bitcoin is likely to experience its first major financial recession in 2018. The question is: How much pain will it still feel before it can regain its long-term gains?
Mike McGlone uses this to compare BTC to the Nasdaq 100 Index, since they have had a close correlation in the past. Bloomberg Intelligence compares Nasdaq 100 to its 200-week moving average, and its performance over two recessions.
Courtesy of Bloomberg Intelligence During the 2022 market crash the Nasdaq reached a bottom at 70% below its mean. It was also trading at a 40% discount to the mean during the 2009 recession. If the BTC price shows a similar pattern, it could tank below $10,000 levels.
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A Bull Case Scenario for Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), currently faces psychological resistance at $23,000 levels. The technical chart shows that a bullish scenario is emerging for Bitcoin (BTC) as the price is close to a golden cross. This occurs when the 50-day moving mean crosses the 200-day moving mean.
Courtesy: Bloomberg
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Sean Farrell, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of digital-asset strategy, stated that most instances of a “golden cross” have led to favorable returns for Bitcoin and many have occurred at crucial long-term inflection points.
The Fed may continue to raise interest rates aggressively in the future, given the recent US job losses. It will be interesting for us to see how the BTC prices structure develops in the future.
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